| In essence, there are two ways you can convey the chance of something happening at the table. You can either state the odds against something happening or the probability that it will happen. Both have good and bad points and are helpful in specific situations. As a bonus, if the probability of something is known, the odds against it happening can be easily worked out. Alternatively, if the odds against an event happening are known the probability that it will happen can also be worked out. Odds aren’t shy – they give you the bad news up front. They let you know what you’re getting into and just exactly how unlikely it is, what you’re hoping to happen, will actually happen. For example, improving from a pocket pair to better (set, full house or four of a kind) on the flop is 7.5:1. This means that you will probably fail to improve 7.5 times for every one time you do improve. Probability will give you a positive spin on the answer whilst masking the bad news. The probability of improving in the scenario above is 11.8%. That sounds pretty tempting doesn’t it? What is being hidden though and what you should always keep in mind is that you’ve actually got an 88.2% of not improving (100%-11.8% = 88.2%). One reason to talk in odds is that you can easily relate the odds of your hand improving to the pound odds that the pot is offering you. Thinking about odds in this way is essential when deciding whether to fold, call or raise when it is your turn to act. For example, if you flop a heart flush (two hearts in your hand and two come on the flop) - what are the odds of making your flush on the turn? There are a total of 13 hearts in the deck – and you have already seen four of them – leaving nine hearts hidden in the deck. You have seen 5 cards in total (the flop plus your two hole cards) leaving 47 unseen cards in the total of which 9 are hearts. Therefore, you have 38 cards that do not make your hand and nine that do; the odds are 38:9 or slightly worse than 4:1. For the purposes of explanation we’ll exclude all complicating factors such as implied odds, table image, knowledge of opponents etc. Let us suppose you are in a game where the pot is £21 and you have to put in £7 to see the next card. The pot is only giving you 21:7 or 3:1 for your money but your odds are more than 4:1 to make the flush. Then you shouldn’t call. However if it will only cost you £3 to see the next card then you are technically able to call as you will be getting odds of 7:1 on your money but only 4:1 on making your hand. This may seem complicated at first but it gets easier the more you practice. Spend some time learning the odds of different hand scenarios and you will soon come to see the game in an entirely different light. Take the effort to work out what the pot is laying you and what your chances are of making your specific hand will be. If you are a beginner and are unsure what to do just remember if the odds of improving are less than your pot odds – muck your hand and wait for a better opportunity. |
