They are; you hit the flop perfectly, you hit partly or you miss completely. For example: | FLOP | YOU HOLD | Perfect: | 10-J-Q | A-K | | Partly: | 7-8-2 | 6-9 | | Miss: | 9-9-K | 4-5 |
An important thing to remember is that you have seen 71per cent of your final poker hand at this point ( 5 out of 7 cards) so if you haven’t already hit something, you want good odds to hit a card and with the correct pot odds.It’s easy enough if you’ve missed completely – you just fold. A lot of people are happy to play middle pair, middle kicker. For example, the flop is Q-J-6 and they have J-10. Personally I would not be calling with this hand and would maybe only consider with an ace kicker. But then again and ace comes and it gives someone else holding king 10 a straight! So what do you do? Top pair, top kicker is almost always a good flop for you which is why I made the point last time about playing high cards. Draws are okay but best with overcards as well. You have almost 4 per cent on the flop for each ‘out’ you have.So, if you have 4 to a straight, say, 4,5,6,7 and can hit either a 3 or an 8 then you have 8 ‘outs’ which is roughly 31.5 per cent or 2.2 to 1 at this point (with two cards to come, assuming you play until the end). If the pot is paying odds of over 2 to 1 then it is worth it. If not then it should really be folded. A flush draw is slightly better with 9 outs but if you also have overcards or a straight and a flush draw then you are odds on – 54 per cent for the former and 59 per cent with the latter. Having said that, if you are holding something like 8 -9 of clubs, you would rather make your straight than the flush as even though a flush beats a straight you are more likely to have the nuts with the straight. As a rule, I would say never to play a gut shot straight ( that is when you only have 4 cards to make your straight). It’s a mug’s play. However, if you are playing a solid player it doesn’t mean he won’t call with a gut shot as he may also have 2 overcards to make it worth his while. For example the flop is 10-J-2 and he is holding A-K. That gives him 12 outs instead of just 4. If you hit your straight or flush, and it’s the ‘nuts’, that is unbeatable, you need to know how to exploit it to make as much money as possible. I’ll go on to that next time! |
